Treehouse Almond Market Update – Ago 12th, 2025

July Shipment Report

The July Position Report marked a positive step forward for California. Shipments totaled 197.1 million lbs, an +9.9% increase over the previous July, bringing year-to-date shipments to just -1.7% behind last year’s pace. This represents a strong finish to the crop year, particularly given that Standard 5% prices averaged roughly $0.70/lb higher than the 2023 season average.

The release of the Objective Estimate spurred renewed sales activity, with buyers taking advantage of adjusted prices and sellers moving the final old crop inventory while filling summer production schedules. — the largest July sales volume since 2020. This brings new crop sales to 9.5%, still lagging behind historical (~14%) end July sales pace.

This surge provided much-needed momentum to offset slower activity in May and June. While new crop commitments of 284.8 million lbs reflect notable improvement from those months, they remain at the lower end of historical averages. Sustained sales activity will be critical if California hopes to boost shipments in the 2025 crop season.

Key Markets

• India – Shipped 45.89 million lbs in July, up 133% year-over-year, closing the 2024 crop year 6% higher overall. The increase was driven largely by the July shipment deadline ahead of Diwali demand. Importers will now face heavy inventories heading into Diwali, likely limiting inshell activity over the coming weeks.
• Western Europe – Ended the year strong, with July shipments up 15% and full-year results 1% higher than last year.
• Middle East – As expected, shipments fell 21% in July as military conflict in the region slowed activity.
• Domestic Market – Despite solid July new sales (36.7 million lbs), full-year shipments finished -7.8%, underscoring concern for the industry’s largest consumer market. Worth a reminder that a roughly half of this decline could be attributed to the USDA not making purchases from the 2024 crop.

2025 Crop Harvest Outlook

Harvest is in full swing, with the first Nonpareil deliveries arriving in recent days. Early yield data is inconclusive, though quality has been a positive improvement from recent years. Over the coming weeks, yield figures will be closely watched as the industry assesses whether the 3-billion-pound Objective Forecast is achievable.

Debate over the validity of the 3-billion-pound figure remains active. Even at the lower industry and Subjective Estimates of 2.8 billion lbs, California would need to match 2024 crop shipment levels to keep the 2025 carryout below 650 million lbs. For now, sellers would be prudent to build on recent momentum in hopes of maintaining a healthy sales and shipments until the final crop size is better understood.