Treehouse Almond Market Update – May 13th, 2025

California handlers shipped a total of 241.1 million lbs in April, just 0.2% short of last year. This keeps season-to-date shipments of 2,051 million lbs within 1.4% of last year’s pace. This brings welcome news to sellers with prices today over $1/lb higher than this time last season.

Shipments

Export consumers of California almonds carried the weight of shipments with 187.8 million lbs shipped—the highest April export shipments on record. India headlined these shipments with an impressive pull of 45.9 million lbs (+39.5%). Despite the busy
month of imports, India still finds itself 4% behind last season’s cumulative shipments through the end of April. Meanwhile, Western Europe proved its demand for prompt shipments with 63.8 million lbs of shipments delivered to the region in April, a year-onyear increase of 26.7%. Within the region, Spain (+19.2%), the Netherlands (+65.6%), Germany (15.0%), and Italy (+47.1%) each registered shipments above 10 million lbs for the month.

Meanwhile, there seems to have been a mix of results in the Middle East. While Turkish shipments fell 37.2% with just 7.3 million lbs, the UAE saw a 72.3% increase in April shipments with 14.8 million lbs. Overall, Middle Eastern shipments in April totaled 29.9 million lbs, a solid yearly increase of 8.0%. Shipments to Vietnam were curiously up 101.8%, with 7.4 million lbs delivered in April. Perhaps these figures point to buyers rerouting shipments bound for China through Vietnam for reduced tariff
burdens.

Commitments and Sales

Handlers in California added 192.5 million lbs of new sales in April. While these sales figures are down from last year, this marks the second highest April on record in terms of new sales activity. Members of the industry will remember that last April and May saw large influxes of sales out of anticipation for a large 2024 crop (recall the ’24 Subjective Estimate of 3 billion lbs) that ultimately failed to materialize.

Nevertheless, sales in April of this year, when compared to the average of April sales across the last 5 years (157.8 million lbs), are up 22.0%, which properly frames the elevated level of sales activity in the last 30 days. Domestic sales saw a noteworthy bounce back with 51.3 million lbs in April after sales of 29.4 million lbs in February and only 34.2 million lbs in March. April export sales of 141.3 million lbs are down from each of the past 2 months but are respectable against similar 5-year averages.

Export commitments of 322.6 million lbs at the end of April are 13.8 million lbs ahead of last year, while domestic commitments of 202.5 million lbs still trail last year’s pace by 41.4 million lbs.

Crop & Receipts

Receipts have all but finished up, with just 8.2 million lbs added to the 2024 crop in April, which now totals 2,709 million lbs.

The biggest news to the industry regarding crop was the release of yesterday’s annual Subjective Estimate at 2.8 billion lbs for the 2025 crop. The Subjective Estimate seems to be on the higher end of the spectrum of various crop estimates published throughout the past several weeks. Regardless of one’s position, the reality of a tighter-than-usual carryout in the 2024 crop continues to solidify following another month of solid shipments. Altogether, a crop of 2.8 billion lbs in 2025, along with a forecasted carryout of 550 million lbs, results in a total new crop supply of 3,294 million lbs—a scanty increase of just 4.3% from this year.

Market & Summary

Sellers continue to have reason for optimism with another month of strong sales and shipments. Even still, demand abroad continues to swell for India, with buying for Diwali 2025 needing to take place out of the remainder of the 2024 crop. Buyers in Europe seem not yet fully covered through Q3, with a need for more 2024 crop shipments before the season’s end. Buyers in the Middle East look towards the 2026 Ramadan holiday, which will also be earlier than usual, pointing towards expected demand for the first available 2025 crop of Nonpareil shipments. As the crop continues its progression in the trees, the steady continuation of sales and shipments will remain the highest priority for sellers throughout the summer. General sentiments are that 2025 crop trades have been relatively quiet, and next month’s position report will give first insight into how much business has been done for the new crop. Until then, sellers seem to have permission to keep the gas pedal down on pricing in the weeks to come.