Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update April 2026

The March Position Report is out, and it is a good one. In a marketing year that has tested the industry’s patience with a sluggish domestic market, persistent hand-to-mouth buying, and genuine geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, March delivered the kind of broad-based performance that reminds you why California almonds remain one of the most globally demanded tree nuts in the world.

Total March shipments reached 258.0 million pounds, compared to 221.4 million pounds in March 2025, an increase of 16.5% year over year. The industry entered December with a year-to-date deficit of 9.5%. That deficit now stands at just 1.9%, a recovery that is frankly impressive given everything the market has had to navigate.

Domestic performance showed its first signs of life in months, with 52.8 million pounds shipped compared to 51.8 million pounds last March, a gain of 1.9%. More telling is the domestic sales picture. New domestic sales reached 45.5 million pounds compared to 34.2 million pounds a year ago, up over 33%, as buyers used near-term uncertainty and softer pricing to cover Q3 needs. Shipments lag sales, and with domestic sales running that far ahead of last year, the outlook is considerably more constructive than the shipment number alone suggests.

Export demand is where the story really gets interesting. March exports reached 205.2 million pounds, up 21.0% versus last March, pushing year-to-date exports to 1.38 billion pounds, up 3.0% on the season. In a year where domestic has underperformed, export has been the backbone of this market.

Europe put up numbers that are hard not to get excited about. Western Europe shipped 71.9 million pounds, up approximately 43% versus last March. Sellers finally began making Standard 5% more broadly available, and Spain was ready and waiting, shipping 23.7 million pounds, up 85% versus last year. Germany contributed 12.3 million pounds, up roughly 60%, Italy added 9.1 million pounds, up approximately 24%, and Central and Eastern Europe shipped 5.3 million pounds compared to just 1.9 million pounds last March. When sellers came to the table with the right product, buyers responded.

Southeast Asia shipped 11.0 million pounds, up approximately 28% versus last March, with Vietnam leading at 5.6 million pounds. Demand is being further supported by reports that the Australian almond crop is down 8 to 10% this season and facing serious quality concerns, redirecting focus back to California and adding a meaningful layer of tailwind heading into the back half of the season.

India shipped 39.2 million pounds, essentially flat with last March’s 39.7 million pounds, a strong result against an exceptionally high prior year base. The vast majority of India’s volume moves as inshell, and inshell inventories are getting increasingly tight with expectations for continued price strengthening. The key dynamic to watch is how inshell Nonpareil pricing continues to separate from Nonpareil kernel pricing, an increasingly important market signal as the season progresses. India remains the anchor of the export program and the inshell supply picture suggests that anchor is only getting stronger.

The Middle East and Africa region shipped 43.6 million pounds, up approximately 16% versus last March, though a note of caution is warranted. Turkey’s standout month of 14.0 million pounds, up over 99%, likely reflects rerouted cargo originally destined for the UAE rather than pure incremental consumption. There is also real demand loss in Iran, and the full impact of that loss is not yet well understood. Morocco shipped a strong 14.7 million pounds, up 64%, and cargo continues to move to the UAE through adjusted channels, but the region’s true demand picture remains one of the more important variables to watch.

Carryout is positioned at approximately 20% of total supply with real opportunity to move lower if the current pace holds. The first official crop estimate is due in May and is worth paying close attention to this year. As a reminder, the May Subjective Estimate is the one and only official USDA crop estimate for the 2026 season. The USDA Objective Estimate, which has historically been released in July and served as a useful data point to refine the May number, will no longer be published. That means the May estimate will carry more weight than it has in prior years, and the market will likely treat it accordingly. Early speculation points to a crop similar in size to 2025, though bloom conditions were variable and nut set has been uneven by variety and region. With no follow-up estimate coming in July, the May number will set the tone for the back half of the marketing year.

Overall, the March report reflects an industry that has quietly built momentum through a challenging stretch of the marketing year. The shipment deficit is nearly gone, export demand is strong across nearly every major region, and the industry did all of this while absorbing one of the more disruptive geopolitical events to hit global trade flows in recent memory. That is a story worth telling.

Highlights at a Glance

• March shipments of 258.0 million pounds, up 16.5% year over year, the strongest month of the marketing year, narrowing the season-to-date deficit from 9.5% in December to just 1.9%
• Domestic sales up over 33% versus a year ago as buyers covered Q3 needs on softer pricing, with export shipments up 21.0% for the month and up 3.0% year to date, demand is broad based and accelerating
• Europe, Southeast Asia, and India all posted strong months, with Australian crop concerns and tightening inshell Nonpareil inventory adding further tailwind to California demand
• Middle East and Africa up 16% on the surface, but Turkey’s outsized gain likely reflects rerouted UAE cargo and real consumption loss in Iran remains difficult to quantify
• Carryout is positioned at approximately 20% of supply with a real path to getting tighter if the strong sales pace continues, a very constructive setup for the market.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com