Treehouse California Almonds Market Update – Dec 19th, 2025

Following the release of the November Position Report, the almond industry continues to navigate a challenging but familiar landscape, with shipments and sales lagging prior-year levels while market participants look to crop size and demand recovery to restore balance.

November shipments totaled 220.5 million pounds, down 18.7% compared to November 2024, which was an outlier month at 271.4 million pounds. Domestic shipments reached 47.3 million pounds, down 13% year over year, while export shipments totaled 173.2 million pounds, declining 20.2% compared to the same period last year. Despite the year-over-year decline, the industry recognizes that last November set a high bar, and current shipment levels remain sufficient to keep product moving through core demand channels, with November shipment volumes holding up reasonably well compared to recent years. When considered alongside reduced crop size expectations, many in the market view the current shipment pace as
generally supportive, though the margin for error remains tight, particularly if crop receipts extend with a longer tail than currently anticipated.

Sales activity in November totaled 204 million pounds, leaving total commitments 10.87% behind last year. Buying patterns remain largely hand-to-mouth, with many buyers hesitant to extend coverage meaningfully beyond nearby needs while awaiting clearer signals from shipment trends and total supply.

Following the October Position Report, prices continued to move largely sideways through November as overall sentiment remained unchanged. Buyers continue to point to lagging shipments and sales, while sellers remain reluctant to discount, holding firm to expectations that final 2025 crop receipts will ultimately provide the balance needed to support overall market fundamentals. This dynamic has kept the market largely range bound, with limited conviction on either side.

Crop receipts reached 2.188 billion pounds, tracking 6.6% behind receipts for the same period last year. With late harvest delays and persistent moisture across much of the state, receipts continue to be viewed as an imperfect indicator of final crop size. Wetter conditions and prolonged drying times slowed hulling activity well into November and, in some cases, raised
concerns around moisture related quality issues. As a result, additional clarity on final supply and overall quality may remain elusive until the remaining crop is fully processed and accounted for later this winter.

India proved to be a positive highlight during the month. November shipments to the region were up 29.4% compared to last year. While year-to-date shipments to India remain 19% behind, continued market activity is encouraging and brings optimism that the YTD gap will continue to narrow as buyers work to replenish much-needed supply over the coming months.
The Middle East showed signs of slowing in November, with shipments to the region down 7.6% compared to November 2024. Despite strong growth out of Israel, where shipments increased 145%, overall year-to-date shipments to the region are down 9%. The UAE and Turkey continue to weigh on regional totals, with year-to-date shipments down 8% and 6%,
respectively.

Western Europe also slowed significantly during November. What had been tracking at over 30% year-to-date growth through the end of October has now moderated to -1%, as November shipments cooled sharply. This slowdown was largely anticipated, as holiday demand has largely been covered and any incremental spot needs are expected to be sourced locally.

Elsewhere, demand remains uneven, with most markets continuing to transact cautiously and focus primarily on nearby positions. Sellers remain disciplined, while buyers look for further confirmation of improving shipment trends before re-engaging more aggressively.

Following the November Position Report, it is difficult to anticipate any meaningful shift in overall market sentiment in the near term. However, as the industry moves deeper into the winter months, attention will increasingly turn toward the approaching February bloom. With bloom-related expenses such as honeybee placement quickly approaching, some sellers may
be more inclined to bring product to market, potentially creating a window of opportunity for buyers. December and early January sales activity will be telling, whether buyers continue to cover hand-to-mouth, or take advantage of what could prove to be temporary market softness and begin extending coverage to hedge potential bloom-related risk.