Treehouse California Almonds Market Update: February 2026

The January Position Report reflected a month of strong underlying demand, even as pricing volatility created choppy market conditions across the industry. 

Total January shipments reached 206.07 million pounds, down approximately 9.8% from 228.64 million pounds in January 2025. Domestic shipments totaled 51.01 million pounds, a decline of 17.3% year over year, while export shipments reached 155.06 million pounds, down 7.1% from last January. Year-to-date shipments now stand at 1.277 billion pounds compared to 1.373 billion pounds at this time last year, a gap of roughly 7%. 

While 206 million pounds is a less than desirable shipment total for the month, it is important to view it in context. With end December commitments at 496.2 million pounds, the 41.5% commitments to shipments ratio reinforces the continued hand to mouth buying pattern and the need for prompt coverage. This dynamic should bolster seller confidence that the strong January sales performance will translate into improved shipment figures through February and March. 

January sales were exceptional. Total new sales reached 298.2 million pounds, making it the second largest January sales month on record. The only larger January occurred in 2022, when 350 million pounds were sold at an average Standard 5% price near $1.50. In contrast, this January’s Standard 5% average hovered around $2.90, underscoring that buyers were willing to step in at materially higher price levels. 

Much of this activity was driven by buyers covering prompt shipment needs, with robust engagement seen at the PTNPA, MEWA, and Gulfood trade shows. However, strong demand was met by aggressive selling. Call pools and several undersold handlers leaned heavily into the market, offering significant discounts to secure volume business. As a result, prices softened temporarily. At the low, Standard 5% dipped to $2.80 before recovering to the $2.88–$2.90 range ahead of today’s report, as offers began to thin and cold, wet bloom forecasts dampened seller motivation. 

California added another 114.2 million pounds of crop receipts in January, largely in line with expectations and reinforcing confidence in a final crop size near 2.7 billion pounds. Net marketable crop receipts now total 2.574 billion pounds compared to 2.611 billion pounds received year-to-date last season, a difference of roughly 1.4%. Using a working estimate of 2.7 billion pounds, the industry would need to maintain an average shipment pace of approximately 211 million pounds per month to keep carryout near a manageable 580 million pounds. Continued strong sales activity over the next one to two months could further improve the carryout outlook and help tighten the transition into new crop. 

Regionally, performance was mixed. India shipped 38.98 million pounds in January, essentially flat with last year’s 38.80 million pounds, indicating steady demand despite pricing and currency considerations. Western Europe slowed, shipping 44.49 million pounds compared to 54.23 million pounds last January, a decline of nearly 18%. Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain all posted year over year declines, reinforcing the narrative of cautious nearby coverage. 

In contrast, the Middle East provided a bright spot. January shipments totaled 29.21 million pounds compared to 22.66 million pounds last year, an increase of nearly 29%. This is particularly encouraging given continued geopolitical tension and currency volatility in the region. 

As the industry progresses through bloom, strong January sales provide positive momentum. If shipment pace builds as expected and crop receipts avoid further surprises, California appears positioned to maintain a manageable carryout scenario heading into the second half of the marketing year but sellers must remain engaged to keep momentum. With less than ideal bloom conditions impacting much of the state and strong February shipment expectations following January’s robust sales activity, the near-term environment appears supportive of a stable to firmer pricing over the coming weeks. 

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com