Treehouse California Almonds Market Update – Jan 14th, 2026

Following the release of the December Position Report, the almond industry showed signs of improved activity, particularly on the shipment front, though underlying challenges around total supply and overall sales pace remain.

Total shipments for December reached 245.76 million pounds, an increase of approximately 5.4% from 233.09 million pounds shipped in December 2024. Export shipments led the way at 196.66 million pounds, up 11.1% year over year from 177.04 million pounds last December, while domestic shipments totaled 49.1 million pounds, down 12.4% from 56.05 million pounds a year ago. While the domestic market continues to lag, stronger export movement helped offset the decline and provided support to overall shipment performance.

Year-to-date total shipments now stand at 1.07 billion pounds, trailing last year’s pace by approximately 6.5% compared to 1.144 billion pounds through December 2024. While still behind, December’s improvement offered encouragement that shipments are regaining traction as the season progresses.

December sales totaled 196.66 million pounds, an increase of roughly 7.8% over last December’s 182.5 million pounds, though still short of more optimistic industry expectations. On a year-to-date basis, total sales are now running approximately 8% behind last year’s pace. While overall commitment levels continue to lag, the pace of shipments is an encouraging sign, as sales are being converted to shipments quickly with buyers maintaining a steady hand-to-mouth approach. A significant portion of December sales activity was focused on covering nearby shipment needs, with buyers remaining reluctant to extend coverage beyond Q1.

Crop receipts added 324.89 million pounds during December, bringing total new marketable crop receipts to 2.46 billion pounds. This narrowed the year-over-year receipt gap meaningfully, improving from 6.09% behind the 2024 crop at the end of November to just 2.67% behind on a year-to-date basis. The obvious question now is how much crop remains to be received. Comparing historical January-forward receipts is not straightforward, as each crop year brings its own nuance. For reference, the 2024 crop received 136.64 million pounds from January forward, though that season was exceptionally dry and hulling operations finished at a record pace. In contrast, October and November rains during the 2025 harvest slowed drying and hulling activity, with several hullers maintaining operations into January, three to four weeks longer than the 2024 season. While the final crop size is still not fully understood, historical receipt patterns suggest a total crop in the range of 2.65 to 2.75 billion pounds remains within reasonable expectation.

Regional demand patterns were mixed. The Middle East stood out in December, shipping 41.19 million pounds compared to 26.68 million pounds in December 2024, an increase of approximately 54%, with year-to-date shipments for the region now up 1%. Turkey posted especially strong movement, importing 18.95 million pounds, more than 130% higher than the 8.18 million pounds shipped last December. The UAE also showed solid growth, importing 13.16 million pounds, up 35% from 9.71 million pounds a year ago. Seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan supported strong December movement; however, geopolitical unrest, currency depreciation, and rising regional tensions raise questions about the sustainability of this pace moving forward.

Western Europe posted modest year-to-date growth, with shipments totaling 62.16 million pounds, up approximately 3.5% from 60.06 million pounds through December 2024, reflective of a mature market. Spain led December activity with shipments of 20.11 million pounds, up 23% from 16.29 million pounds last year, while Italy also showed improvement at 11.33 million pounds, an increase of nearly 37% compared to 8.29 million pounds a year ago. These gains were partially offset by a pullback through the Netherlands, which shipped 7.58 million pounds, down roughly 51% from 15.46 million pounds in December 2024, highlighting shifting demand dynamics within the region.

Domestic shipments continue to weigh on overall performance, with year-to-date domestic shipments totaling 242.64 million pounds, down approximately 18% from 295.92 million pounds at this point last year. Higher pricing, inflationary pressures, and cautious consumer behavior continue to limit domestic demand relative to export markets. On a more positive note, the USDA is expected to initiate an almond purchasing program in 2026, an outlet that has been absent over the past two years, which could help offset some of the recent softness in domestic demand.

As the industry moves deeper into winter, market sentiment remains mixed. December shipment performance was encouraging, but uncertainty around final crop size and continued hand-to-mouth buying patterns suggest that sellers need to remain engaged as prudent buyers look to hedge ahead of the upcoming bloom. How buyers and sellers navigate this transition in the coming weeks will likely play a key role in setting the tone for the remainder of the season.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com