Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update March 2026

The February Position Report reflected another month of solid underlying demand ahead of the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which has since introduced new uncertainty into global trade flows. Shipment activity once again demonstrated that almonds have been moving steadily through global channels, while pricing remains sensitive to ongoing selling pressure and measured buyer coverage.

Total February shipments reached 241.136 million pounds, compared to 214.932 million pounds in February 2025, an increase of 12.2% year over year. The stronger shipment pace reinforces that demand remains healthy despite the continued hand-to-mouth purchasing pattern observed across many markets.

Domestic performance softened during the month, with 45.028 million pounds shipped compared to 56.181 million pounds last February, a decline of roughly 19.9%. As has been the case throughout much of the marketing year, stronger export demand more than offset the domestic slowdown.

Sales activity remained solid. New sales totaled 246.2 million pounds, representing 41.8% of January commitments, continuing the trend of buyers securing prompt coverage rather than extending positions further forward. For comparison, February 2025 sales totaled 220.8 million pounds. The 26 million pound increase, or 11.5%, resulted in record February sales, reinforcing the resilience of global demand even at the higher price levels seen in recent seasons. Total commitments now stand at 593.4 million pounds, compared to 577.4 million pounds at this time last year, a gain of 2.8%. These commitments support expectations for a strong March shipping month, though UAE disruptions and rising shipping congestion will limit full shipment potential.

Recent price correction reflects Middle East uncertainty and its broader global impact rather than weakening demand. Escalating tensions and related logistical disruptions have created hesitation among buyers and added volatility to trade flows. At the same time, call pool sellers have contributed to near-term pressure as they work to liquidate undersold positions. Despite this, underlying demand remains solid, with many buyers still largely uncovered for May forward positions. In recent days, more disciplined buyers have begun stepping into the market to take advantage of discounted offerings, positioning ahead of a potential stabilization in geopolitical conditions.

On the supply side, California reported additional crop receipts of 52.8 million pounds, bringing the net marketable crop to approximately 2.625 billion pounds. With the majority of receipts now accounted for, the final net marketable crop is unlikely to exceed 2.7 billion pounds, providing greater clarity around total available supply for the season. At that level, the industry would need to maintain an average shipment pace near 212 million pounds per month through July to keep carryout within a balanced range near 550 million pounds.

Regionally, India delivered one of the strongest performances during the month, shipping 41.314 million pounds, up from 25.56 million pounds last February, an increase of roughly 61.6%. Year-to-date shipments now stand at 213 million pounds compared to 221.4 million pounds last year, leaving India about 3.8% behind last year’s pace as shipments continue to close the gap.

Southeast Asia also rebounded, shipping 9.67 million pounds compared to 5.148 million pounds last February, an increase of roughly 87.9%. Vietnam led the region, accounting for 6.086 million pounds as buyers returned to the market following a quieter start to the year.

Western Europe recorded a strong month, shipping 69.65 million pounds compared to 57.215 million pounds last February, an increase of approximately 21.7%. Improved buying activity coincided with more plentiful Standard 5% offerings, which helped stimulate demand across the region. Spain shipped 20.28 million pounds, up 32.5%, while Italy shipped 11.4 million pounds, a 50% increase year over year. Germany also improved, shipping 12.5 million pounds compared to 10.2 million pounds, an increase of roughly 22.5%.

The Middle East shipped 28 million pounds compared to 24.5 million pounds last February, a gain of 14.3%. While overall movement remained solid, the region is beginning to experience logistical disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran. Shipments bound for the United Arab Emirates are currently facing the greatest challenges, with some cargo being rerouted to alternate ports as shipping lanes adjust. Shipments to other parts of the region continue to move, though often at elevated wartime freight rates. Importantly, most February shipments departed California before these disruptions intensified, meaning the March Position Report will likely provide the first clear indication of the conflict’s impact on shipments.

Overall, the February report reinforces that demand remains active across key export markets. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, persistent hand-to-mouth buying patterns, and ongoing selling pressure continue to shape near-term market conditions. Shipment execution and logistics developments in the coming months will be important to monitor as the market works toward balancing supply and demand through the remainder of the marketing year.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com