Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update November 2026

Almond market update November 2026: the October Position Report shows shipments up 0.6%, with India and Pakistan driving exports while Europe lags.

The Almond Board released the October Position Report today. Shipments for the month totaled 250.6 million pounds, up 0.6% from last year, which brings the crop year total to 673.3 million pounds, up 11.4% and 69 million pounds ahead of last year. The year to date number looks strong, but October was a clear step down from August and September, when net shipments ran 20.5% and 17.9% ahead of last year. Part of that is a tougher comparison, as October of last year was one of the stronger months of the 2025 crop year at 249.2 million pounds. November of last year was softer at 220.5 million pounds, so the comparison should ease next month.

Exports were 535.1 million pounds year to date, up 16.8%, with October at 202.7 million pounds, up 0.8%. Most of the export growth came from India. India has taken 163.0 million pounds so far, more than double last year’s 72.8 million, and October alone was 52.3 million pounds, up 85%. Nearly all of it is inshell. Total inshell exports have almost doubled to 185.4 million pounds, while shelled exports are down about 4%. Take India out and exports are down roughly 3.4% year to date, and October without India was down about 13%. Pakistan is also a growing factor at 29.0 million pounds year to date against 6.3 million last year, including 11.8 million in October.

India and the Middle East, including Pakistan, have driven the first three months of 2026 crop shipments, filling Diwali and Ramadan demand needs. The Position Report shows the Middle East down 8% year to date, but with Pakistan included we are at 116.9 million pounds against 101.7 million last year, up 15.0%. October on the same basis was 54.3 million pounds, up 10.4%. Inside the region the picture is uneven. The UAE is down 29% year to date at 34.4 million pounds, while Turkey is up 13% and Saudi Arabia is up 72%. North Africa remains soft, with Morocco down 61% from last year’s pace.

Elsewhere, Northeast Asia has been a bright spot at 47.3 million pounds, up 32%, with China and Hong Kong up 50%, South Korea up 34%, Taiwan up 41%, and Japan up 23%. Europe remains sluggish, down 13% at 124.9 million pounds, as buyers cover nearby needs from the local Spanish crop while waiting for improved final crop forecasts from California before stepping in for first and second quarter coverage. Spain is down 31% and Italy down 12%, while Germany is up 10% and the Netherlands is roughly flat. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is down 22% and Thailand and Indonesia are well behind last year, offset by gains in Malaysia and Singapore.

Domestic shipments were 138.2 million pounds year to date, down 5.5%, with October at 48.0 million pounds, down 0.6%. That improves on September, which was down 12.4%, but domestic is still only 21% of shipments against 24% a year ago.

On the supply side, receipts for October were 681.0 million pounds, compared with 705.8 million last October, down about 3.5%. Receipts through October 31 total 1,896.5 million pounds, up 11.68% from the same point last year, but that lead has narrowed considerably from last month, when receipts were trending 22.5% ahead. Combined with carry in of 470.7 million pounds, total supply is 2,329.2 million pounds, up 8.4%. Many hullers are wrapping up their 2026 operations this month, and most are reporting they will finish two to four weeks earlier than last year. That makes the November receipts number highly anticipated, and it should give us an earlier than normal vantage point on the final size of the 2026 crop. The Position Report carries a 2.7 billion pound receipts forecast, which leaves roughly 800 million pounds still to come, but the general consensus in California is that the final crop will land between 2.5 and 2.6 billion pounds.

Commitments point to more caution. Sold but undelivered volume is 526.2 million pounds, down 6.3%, with domestic commitments down 6.4% and export commitments down 6.2%. The lower level of commitments reflects the hand to mouth buying we are seeing, but it also shows buyers, particularly in developed markets, being cautious about how higher prices will impact consumption once they finally reach store shelves.

At a crop of 2.5 to 2.6 billion pounds, roughly 47 to 49% of the marketable crop has been shipped or sold, which is historically a slow start but within the range of the last two seasons, when similar hand to mouth buying patterns emerged. New sales for October totaled 247.7 million pounds, a historically strong showing for the month though not a record. November and December receipts will be most telling for final crop estimates, and sellers are having to calibrate what pace of sales and shipments is needed to reach a reasonable carryout ratio of 18 to 21%, measured as carryout as a percentage of total shipments through July. Shipments are currently 69 million pounds ahead of last year, which gives sellers a head start, but the table below shows how far monthly shipments from November through July would need to come down from last year’s pace of 225.0 million pounds a month under four crop sizes.

Final crop size (lbs)	Carryout ratio	Total shipments needed (M lbs)	Nov to Jul monthly pace (M lbs)	Change vs. last year’s pace
2.70 billion	18%	2,641.3	218.7	Down 2.8%
2.70 billion	19.5%	2,608.1	215.0	Down 4.5%
2.70 billion	21%	2,575.8	211.4	Down 6.1%
2.60 billion	18%	2,558.2	209.4	Down 6.9%
2.60 billion	19.5%	2,526.1	205.9	Down 8.5%
2.60 billion	21%	2,494.8	202.4	Down 10.1%
2.55 billion	18%	2,516.7	204.8	Down 9.0%
2.55 billion	19.5%	2,485.1	201.3	Down 10.5%
2.55 billion	21%	2,454.3	197.9	Down 12.1%
2.50 billion	18%	2,475.2	200.2	Down 11.0%
2.50 billion	19.5%	2,444.1	196.8	Down 12.6%
2.50 billion	21%	2,413.8	193.4	Down 14.1%

Even if the crop comes in flat at 2.7 billion pounds, shipments need to ease by roughly 3 to 6% a month to land in the target range. At 2.6 billion that grows to 7 to 10%, at 2.55 billion it is 9 to 12%, and at 2.5 billion it is 11 to 14%. Last year’s carryout equated to about 17.9% of shipments, so a smaller crop leaves sellers less room to run at the current pace without tightening inventory below that.

Looking ahead, we expect India to slow as it moves into its more normal buying months, before ramping up again in late spring to begin covering for the 2027 Diwali, which will need to be filled from the 2026 crop. Other destinations, including the domestic market and the EU, remain largely uncovered past January. Unlike India and the Middle East, where origin pricing is reflected more promptly in local markets, the higher 2026 crop prices have yet to reach the shelf in many mature markets. That understandably has buyers cautious and leaning toward hand to mouth covering until consumer price acceptance is better understood. Even so, some slowdown is needed under every scenario. The final crop size has to be understood before we can offer full clarity, and we are still a few months away from that. Winter weather and a stronger El Nino pattern will add another asterisk to how the market develops over the next few months, including whether buyers start hedging or continue to wait and see.

By variety, Nonpareil is 40.8% of receipts at 773.3 million pounds, followed by Independence at 18.6% and Monterey at 17.5%. Rejects are running at 2.32%.