Treehouse California Almonds Market Update – Sep 11th, 2025

August Shipment Report

The almond market in September feels like a classic standoff. Buyers still need to secure product, but sellers are reluctant to move, waiting for clearer signals on crop size and demand. Both sides are watching closely, each waiting for the other to blink first.

The August Position Report provided little clarity. Shipments totaled 157.8 million lbs, falling short of industry expectations, while new sales of 184.1 million lbs came in slightly better than feared. Even so, year-to-date commitments of 526.7 million lbs mark the weakest start to a season since 2018. When measured as a share of total supply, the industry’s sold and shipped position stands at just 20%, the lowest in California’s modern era. Even if the crop were revised down to 2.7 billion lbs, this figure would only improve to 22%, still historically weak.

Underlying seller sentiment is a growing uncertainty over the true size of the crop. Early yield reports and August receipts of 259 million lbs, down 11% from 290.1 million last August, cast doubt on the 3.0 billion lb objective estimate. Although it is still very early, the shortfall adds fuel to speculation that the crop may fall well short of the July forecast.

Key Markets

• India: August shipments of 16.38 million lbs were down 41.4% year on year. This slowdown allows inventories to clear, with buying interest expected to pick up as buyers look to restock following the Diwali season.
• Middle East: Shipments reached 17.09 million lbs in August, up 67.5% year on year. Demand is expected to remain strong leading up to the earlier Ramadan, with momentum likely to hold through the November shipment cutoff.
• Western Europe: August shipments totaled 40.1 million lbs, up 9.8% year on year, with Spain driving the growth at 13.7 million lbs compared to 10.05 million last year. A delayed Spanish harvest and weaker EU crop estimates are pushing buyers to secure product from California.
• Domestic U.S.: August sales surged to 55 million lbs, a 504% increase from last year and more in line with typical August for domestic buyers, bringing the crop-year total to 126.4 million lbs, 12.4% higher than a year ago. However, shipments fell short at 48.45 million lbs, down 22% compared with last August.

With shipments sluggish, commitments historically low, and the true crop size uncertain, the market sits at a critical juncture. With current market prices approaching highs seen 5 months ago, time will tell whether sellers begin to loosen their grip or remain cautious until more harvest data provides direction. For now, the standoff continues, and the next few months will determine whether the market finds momentum or stays locked in a slow, uneasy pace.