Treehouse California Almonds Market Update November 13th, 2025

October Shipment Report

The October Position Report offered few surprises but delivered solid numbers. Strong prompt demand from nearly all major buying regions pushed October sales to 261.8 million pounds, just 1 percent below October 2024 and the second-largest October sales total since 2019. Shipments also improved, with California moving 249.2 million pounds for the month, supported especially by continued strength in exports.

Despite the steady October performance, year-to-date sales remain 11 percent behind last season as buyers continue to cover only nearby needs while waiting for clearer supply signals. Year-to-date shipments also slipped slightly and are now down roughly 5.6 percent, or about 73 million pounds, versus last year. Domestic movement remains notably weak, falling to just 48.22 million pounds in October, one of the smallest sales number on record.

The broader situation remains largely unchanged from last month: both sales and shipments continue to trail last year’s pace. However, crop receipts may prove most frustrating for bargain seekers. Handlers received 705 million pounds in October, putting receipts 8 percent behind the same point last year. Rain slowed the tail end of harvest, but with three months of receipts now reported, the size of the 2025 crop is beginning to come into clearer focus but still too soon to hang a hat on it. October receipts were also unusually low compared to September, a rare occurrence that adds another layer of uncertainty. Using November-forward receipt patterns from the past three seasons places the projected 2025 crop between 2.56 and 2.81 billion pounds.

Regional Callouts (Shipments)

India

• October shipments down 3.7 percent (just over 1 million lbs)
• Year-to-date shipments down 29 percent
• Lower October movement should help clear inventory and firm local pricing
• Buyers may try to remain patient, but eventual restocking seems unavoidable

Western Europe

• Year-to-date shipments up 31 percent
• Spain up 67 percent, Germany up 58 percent, and broader EU markets showing strong double-digit gains
• Strong October shipments reflect holiday inventory stocking and signal healthy demand in a mature market

Northeast Asia

• Year-to-date shipments down 37 percent
• Japan up 6 percent; South Korea down 14 percent
• China/Hong Kong down 75 percent due to tariffs and increased sourcing from Australia

Southeast Asia

• Year-to-date shipments up 73 percent
• Vietnam up 132 percent (9.48 million lbs), absorbing much of the processing volume once done in China

Middle East and North Africa

• Region up 84 percent year-to-date
• UAE down 30 percent for October
• Morocco up 95 percent

Domestic U.S.

• October shipments down 28.5 percent
• Year-to-date shipments down 21.16 percent

Heading into the winter months, buyers are likely to gain confidence in the possibility that the 2025 crop may end up aligning closely with the 2024 crop, or potentially finishing lower, given the continued lag in receipts. Early reports of strong first-half November shipments further suggest the market may be more balanced than previously assumed.

Export demand is expected to remain the stabilizing force in the near term, while domestic demand continues to struggle for momentum. Pricing has held firm following the post-Objective recovery and remains near the highs of the marketing year. Or another way to look at it, the best sales month of the year came at the highest price levels seen for the 2025 crop. Handlers and growers alike remain disciplined sellers, and the broader industry is still comparatively undersold, leaving many buyers lightly covered heading into winter.

With harvest expenses now realized and winter and bloom costs on the horizon, sellers appear positioned to maintain steady, measured support. As both sides wait for clearer supply numbers, the current environment is likely to remain one of cautious buying and firm seller posture, with the potential for improved activity should additional demand materialize or receipts continue to run light.