NASS has forecast the 2017 almond crop at 2250 million lbs. This up 50 million lbs from the Subjective Estimate released in May. It represents a 5.1 % increase over the 2016 crop of 2140 million lbs.

Main drivers behind the number:

Adequate chilling hours and then cold, but extended bloom

Plentiful water for irrigation, moderating effects of heat wave in June

Crop appears to be maturing a little later than normal

1,000,000 bearing acres, up from 940,000 bearing acres in 2016

Nonpareil variety forecast at 900 million lbs, up from 817 million lbs in 2016

Nonpareil nut count per tree up 2.4% AND weight increased by 3.0%

Other variety nut counts per tree down, but heavier and larger kernels versus last season

2250 Million lbs comes in at the lower end of expectations and will likely encourage buyers back to the table. A crop of 2250 million lbs leaves room for shipment growth of just over 5% versus last season.

Jonathan Meyer
Treehouse California Almonds

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