The subjective forecast for the 2017 almond crop was released today at 2200 million lbs. The forecast is based on the opinions of growers comparing expectation of yield per acre this year compared to last year. With bearing acreage at 1,000,000 acres, yield for 2017 is forecast at 2200 lbs per acre, down 3.5% from the 2016 average yield of 2280 lbs per acre.
2200 million lbs is on the lower end of market expectations, which had ranged as high as 2350 million lbs.
2200 million lbs would be an increase of 2.8% over last year’s crop of 2140 million lbs and would be a very manageable crop at current price levels and shipment pace, perhaps even short.
We see now if the market gives it credence, noting that many will remember last year’s subjective forecast at 2000 million and the final crop resulting 140 million lbs higher.
We anticipate that this report will steady seller nerves, allowing a little more focus on strong shipments and consumer demand.