2021 Subjective Crop Estimate

The NASS SUBJECTIVE FORECAST was released today putting the 2021 crop at 3,200 Million lbs (3.2 Billion) on 1,330,000 bearing acres.

The implied yield per acre is 2,410 lbs per bearing acre, down 3% from 2,490 lbs per bearing acre for the 2020 crop.

The forecast comes in higher than the 2,800 million to 2,950 million lb range set by trader and handler forecasts over the past month and is seen as above market expectations.

Using the 3,200 million lb forecast, the total supply going into next season will now grow by about 300 million lbs, setting up a challenge to California shippers to grow shipments by about 7% to 10%.

The following table outlines a likely scenario. Forecast numbers are in RED. The 8% growth is driven by the reliable premise that California will ship what it grows and reasonable carry-out at the end of the 2021 season.