Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update September 2026

The August Position Report is the first of the 2026/27 crop year, and it arrives against a market that has rallied for nine consecutive weeks on expectations of a California crop that is both smaller and running smaller in kernel size. Total August shipments reached 190.10 million pounds, up 20.5% from 157.80 million pounds a year ago, with export demand accounting for essentially all of the gain while domestic shipments remained soft.

Export shipments totaled 143.25 million pounds, up 31.0% from 109.35 million pounds in August 2025, while domestic shipments came in at 46.84 million pounds, down 3.3% from 48.45 million pounds a year ago, extending a pattern we have seen over the last two seasons. Sales told a similar story: domestic sales for the month totaled only about 16.5 million pounds, compared to roughly 55.0 million pounds a year ago, while export sales of 122.3 million pounds were down modestly from 129.2 million pounds. Total August sales of approximately 138.8 million pounds, versus 184.1 million pounds last year, came in more or less in line with expectations. Early harvest reports of smaller sizing and lower yields caused sellers to pull back and limit offers, while buyers stayed largely sidelined, hoping additional harvest data would slow the rally and present a better entry point later in the season.

Total commitments, sold but not yet delivered, stood at 497.44 million pounds, down 5.6% from 526.66 million pounds a year ago, with domestic commitments off 9.3% and export commitments off 3.8%.

The report also carried the final loss and exempt (L&E) reconciliation for the 2025/26 crop year. Actual L&E came in at 2.87%, versus the 2% figure the industry had been carrying in its forecast all season, producing a negative adjustment of 23.53 million pounds to the carry-in: 470.66 million pounds actual against 494.19 million pounds under the prior forecast, well above the five-year average of 2.36%. The adjustment points to an even tighter transition into the new crop than the industry had been planning for. Crop receipts to date of 401.85 million pounds are up 55.1% from a year ago, but that figure is more a timing story than a volume signal: harvest started 10 to 14 days earlier than usual this year and clean/dry inputs are running fast, so a larger share of the crop has already crossed into the reporting system than in a typical August.

With that adjustment factored in, the math on this year’s supply gets more interesting. The 2025/26 crop season’s final net edible crop calculates to 2.617 billion pounds, and total supply for the season came to 3.1 billion pounds. For the 2026/27 crop to reach that same 3.1 billion pounds of total supply, given the smaller restated carry-in, this year’s crop would need to come in around 2.682 billion pounds gross, or roughly 2.628 billion pounds net assuming a more typical 2% L&E. Crop reports over the last month have growers and sellers increasingly questioning whether that is achievable, with the general consensus pointing closer to 2.6 billion pounds than 2.7 billion. In other words, if the crop falls short of the Subjective Estimate, shipments will need to retract if California is going to maintain a similar carryout number.

Western Europe posted a standout month, importing 43.17 million pounds versus 40.12 million pounds a year ago, up 7.6%, as local inventories ran dry heading into the fall buying season. Some of that strength may be aided by the EU’s tariff reduction that took effect in July, though as with most tariff-driven moves, the effect is difficult to isolate cleanly from ordinary seasonal restocking.

The Middle East again looks weak on the surface, and again the underlying picture appears more complicated. Reported Middle East shipments fell to 14.18 million pounds from 17.09 million pounds a year ago, a decline of 17%, led by a 63% drop in direct UAE receipts to 4.33 million pounds as Gulf distribution constraints persist. As in recent months, that volume has not disappeared so much as it has moved: Pakistan shipments rose 265% to 8.19 million pounds, an increase of 5.95 million pounds, and Turkey rose 113% to 7.02 million pounds, up 3.73 million pounds, with both continuing to serve as re-routing hubs for Middle East-bound cargo. Adding Pakistan’s increase to the reported Middle East total turns the 17% decline into growth of roughly 15.7%, to 22.37 million pounds from 19.34 million pounds, which may offer a better read on underlying regional demand than the UAE figure alone suggests.

India’s Diwali buildup was the single largest driver of the export increase, with shipments totaling 44.27 million kernel pounds, roughly 1,400 loads and almost entirely inshell, as buyers positioned ahead of the festival. Strong as that number is, it may understate demand: smaller kernel sizing from the 2026 crop pushed a number of August scheduled shipments into September, a dynamic consistent with the sizing pressure reported across the market this month.

Harvest is well underway, and while yield data remains incomplete, a regional pattern is starting to take shape. In Kern County, at the most southern end of the growing region, hullers are reporting Nonpareil yields down 4-7% and Independence down 5-8% from last year; pollinizer data is still too thin to draw firm conclusions, though early reports point to a similar downward trend. Yields in Fresno, at the northern end of the southern region, appear better by comparison, coming off a disappointing 2025 harvest there. More data is needed to see whether Fresno’s gains can level out the rest of the southern region, whose final yield number looks like the major swing factor for this year’s crop. Yields have fared better moving into the central part of the state, with most reports running flat to slightly down, while the north is showing the most consistent weakness, with reports in the 15-20% down range. The receipts figures on their own don’t add much beyond what has already been noted about harvest timing; what they do show is that handlers are working with more data points in August than they typically have at this stage of the season, which is showing up in the market as more cautious selling and limited offers.

That caution shows up clearly in price. Standard 5% opened the month of August near $3.10 per pound and had climbed to close to $3.45 just prior to the position report, with NPX kernels posting similar gains over the same stretch. The move appears driven largely by supply expectations rather than confirmed demand growth: handlers’ anecdotal crop estimates have converged on roughly 2.6 billion pounds or less, with Nonpareil sizing running a full size or more smaller than last year, and the scarcity is concentrated at the top of the size range, where large kernels are commanding the widest premiums. Demand has rotated more than it has grown, with India stepping back after leading much of August’s buying and Europe covering demand only through December, leaving January through March 2027 open on the expectation that prices ease.

Taken together, the August report is broadly consistent with what the market had already priced in: exports, led by India, Europe, and the Middle East (including Pakistan), are absorbing supply while domestic demand remains soft, and the emerging 2026 crop looks smaller and smaller-sized than last year’s. With harvest coming in early and fast, inventories are beginning to build, and the next several weeks of receipts and yield reports out of the central and southern valley should help set the tone for whether the current price rally has room to extend, or whether sellers begin to loosen their grip as a clearer picture of final crop size comes into view.

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