Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update October 2026

The September Position Report, released October 13, is the second of the 2026/27 crop year, and shipments and sales both came in well beyond expectations. Shipments reached 232.55 million pounds, up 17.9%, bringing crop year shipments to 422.64 million pounds, up 19.0%. Exports accounted for essentially all of the gain while domestic shipments remained soft.

Export shipments totaled 189.17 million pounds, up 28.0% and the second highest September export month of the past ten years. Domestic shipments were 43.37 million pounds, down 12.4% and the lowest September in at least ten years, leaving the crop year down 7.9% at 90.22 million pounds. The export strength was narrow. Nearly all of it was inshell, which rose to 75.63 million pounds from 36.17 million pounds, while shelled exports barely moved at 101.57 million pounds. India’s gain of 38.21 million pounds exceeded the industry’s total gain of 35.29 million pounds, so the rest of the world came in about 2.93 million pounds below last year.

Sales were the more impressive story, with about 264 million pounds booked in September compared with roughly 220 million pounds a year ago. Domestic sales were about 49 million pounds, up from 16.5 million pounds in August but still down about 23% from last September, while export sales were about 215 million pounds, up about 38% and the strongest September for export sales since 2021. Bookings also ran more than 30 million pounds ahead of shipments, so buyers kept extending coverage while a large volume was still leaving, and at prices well above last year. Standard 5% averaged $3.38 per pound FAS California, up 43 cents, or 14.7%, from $2.94, while Nonpareil inshell 27/30 averaged $2.82, up 62 cents, or 28.1%, from $2.20. Crop year sales of 403.1 million pounds are about even with last year despite those prices, with export sales up 18% offsetting domestic sales down 45%.

Total commitments, sold but not yet delivered, were 529.22 million pounds, down 3.6%. Domestic commitments are off 13.0% to 160.70 million pounds, while export commitments are up 1.2% to 368.52 million pounds, a turn from the 3.8% decline in August. Domestic buyers look much like Europe, with just enough coverage through November and December but the majority still uncovered beyond January.

Crop receipts of 1,215.51 million pounds are up 22.5%, with September alone adding roughly 814 million pounds, but as with August this is more a timing story than a volume signal. Harvest started early and dry, clean inputs have run fast. Uncommitted inventory of 709.99 million pounds, up 28.5%, reflects nuts arriving sooner more than an increasing 2026 supply.

The industry has started the crop year 67.58 million pounds ahead of last year’s shipping pace. The report still carries the Subjective Estimate of 2.7 billion pounds, but the general consensus remains 2.6 billion pounds or less. Hypothetically, if the crop comes in at 2.6 billion pounds and the industry is to finish with the same 470 million pound carryout as last year, shipments will need to come down, and because the industry is already about 70 million pounds ahead, shipments from October through July would need to decline by roughly 170 million pounds from last year’s same ten months. We estimate about 32% of total supply is already sold versus about 29% last year, with shipped plus committed at 951.86 million pounds, up 5.3%. With sales this strong, California will be confident that October shipments are not going to let up at all, and so far prices have been ineffective at moderating the shipment pace to fit the supply outlook, but a pace this fast cannot be held indefinitely.

Western Europe slipped 12.2% to 34.64 million pounds after a standout August that may have been aided by the EU’s tariff reduction in July. Spain fell 17%, Italy 24% and the U.K. 21%, though the region is down only 2% for the crop year, and the pullback may reflect buyers having covered nearer term needs and leaving January through March open. Northeast Asia gained 39% to 14.50 million pounds, led by South Korea up 56%, with Japan up 13% and China/Hong Kong more than doubling to 2.87 million pounds. Vietnam was up 7%, but Southeast Asia overall was down about 7%.

The Middle East again looks flat on the surface and stronger underneath. Reported shipments of 31.29 million pounds were up 0.8%, as gains in Turkey (up 43%) and Saudi Arabia (up 98%) balanced a 33% drop in direct UAE receipts to 10.98 million pounds, with Gulf distribution constraints appearing to persist. That volume has moved rather than disappeared: Pakistan shipments rose 327% to 8.96 million pounds, up 6.87 million pounds and more than covering the UAE decline, as Pakistan continues to serve as a rerouting hub for Middle East bound cargo. Adding Pakistan turns Middle East growth of 0.8% into roughly 21.5%, to 40.25 million pounds from 33.13 million pounds, and turns the crop year to date decline of 5.5% into growth of roughly 19.4%, to 62.62 million pounds from 52.46 million pounds, a better read on underlying regional demand. Pakistan also moved to a higher customs valuation on shelled almonds this month, which could raise import costs there and put some of the recent growth at risk.

India was again the largest driver of the export increase, with September shipments of 66.35 million kernel pounds, roughly 2,100 loads and almost entirely inshell, versus 28.14 million pounds a year ago. Crop year shipments total 110.62 million pounds, up 148%. Some September volume appears to be August business delayed by smaller kernel sizing, so the two month total is the better measure of demand. That total is roughly 30% of what India took in all of last season, so a good share of its seasonal needs may already be in the pipeline, and a slower pace after Diwali is a real possibility. Delayed vessels mean some festival cargo will reach India late, so how quickly local stocks move and how strongly buyers replenish after the holiday will be the real test of demand.

In price, Standard 5% traded between $3.30 and $3.47 during September, compared with $2.84 to $3.00 a year ago, and eased from the mid $3.40s mid month to the low $3.30s by month end. The softness came partly from call pool growers selling to raise cash and partly from traders cashing in contracts booked in prior months, and price levels varied widely between sellers even as crop estimates drifted lower. Demand continues to rotate more than it grows, with India taking a large share of early buying, Europe pausing, and Northeast Asia active, while coverage remains uneven, with some buyers well covered and others waiting for clarity on crop size and price.

Taken together, the September report is broadly consistent with what the market had already formed, with one important difference: demand has proven stronger than expected, even at prices well above last year. Exports, led by India, Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including Pakistan), are absorbing supply while domestic demand remains soft, and the 2026 crop looks smaller and smaller sized than last year’s. With the industry about 70 million pounds ahead and a smaller crop likely, the supply math leaves little room for shipments to keep running this far ahead. As India takes a breather, the question becomes where and when the additional buying will come at these high levels. Coming reports will show how quickly shipments cool and whether remaining demand can absorb a smaller crop at current values.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com