Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update July 2026

The June Position Report reflected a month of accelerating momentum, with shipments and commitments both pointing to a market that has tightened considerably since the early part of the crop year.

Total June shipments reached 212.98 million pounds, up 14.1% from 186.73 million pounds in June 2025. Export shipments led the way at 163.25 million pounds, up 20.6%, while domestic shipments totaled 49.73 million pounds, down 3.1%, a far narrower gap than the season has shown for much of the year. Year-to-date shipments stand at 2.426 billion pounds versus 2.449 billion a year ago, a gap of less than 1%, with exports running 3.1% ahead cumulatively and domestic shipments still down 12.7%, a divergence that has defined the season.

Commitments continue to reflect a market selling well ahead of last year’s pace. Total committed shipments, sold but not yet delivered, reached 368.48 million pounds, up nearly 18% from 312.38 million, with export commitments up 26.8% and domestic up 6.6%. Uncommitted inventory has fallen to 328.21 million pounds, down 17.8% from 399.22 million a year ago, leaving considerably less unsold supply heading into the final month of the crop year. New crop sales for 2026-27 are also off to an early start, with 147.93 million pounds already committed, split between 33.67 million domestic and 114.27 million export.

Crop receipts for the season now total 2.693 billion pounds, down 0.73% from 2.712 billion a year ago, with receipts at this stage effectively complete. That leaves computed inventory, meaning supply still available to ship or carry forward, at 696.69 million pounds, down 2.09% from 711.59 million. Should July shipments match last year’s 197.15 million pounds, carryout would land near 500 million pounds, and a stronger July would push that lower still.

Regional demand was uneven this month. Western Europe posted a strong June, shipping 47.86 million pounds versus 42.44 million a year ago, up nearly 13%, and now stands up 4.2% year-to-date, led by Spain at 18.16 million pounds, up 49%. Northeast Asia delivered one of the more notable swings in the report, shipping 18.83 million pounds versus 14.53 million last June, up nearly 30% on a 46% jump from Japan, even though the region remains down 16% year-to-date. Southeast Asia moved the opposite direction, down 25% to 6.66 million pounds despite still running up 27% for the year, a reminder its year-to-date strength was built earlier in the season. The Middle East and North Africa combined shipped 31.08 million pounds, up 44%, led by Turkey’s 42% gain. India shipped 34.06 million pounds, down 2% from 34.74 million a year ago and down about 8.8% year to date, a gap of roughly 33 million pounds, more a function of tight current crop inshell supply than any real change in underlying demand. With Diwali linked coverage needs still ahead, India should be a meaningful part of the anticipated pickup in August shipments. This year’s Diwali spacing is worth noting too, a late Diwali on November 8, 2026 followed by an early one on October 29, 2027, meaning 2026 crop inshell will effectively need to stretch across two Diwali cycles, since next year’s crop will have little time to fill the gap before such an early date. How California positions inshell versus kernel production this year could matter more than usual as a result, and pulling more Nonpareil toward inshell could tighten kernel availability and lend some support to alternative varieties like Independence or Carmel type. The maintained inshell premium will be closely watched as harvest commences and sellers adjust their inshell production volumes.

The European Union’s new tariff treatment, under Regulation (EU) 2026/1455 and in force since July 1, sets a 0% duty rate for US almonds in raw and roasted forms alike. Shelled kernels, natural or blanched, previously carried a standard duty of 3.5% under HS 0802, inshell almonds under that heading carried 5.6%, and roasted almonds under HS 2008 carried 9%. All now qualify for 0% duty under the same 500,000 metric ton tariff rate quota shared across all US tree nut categories. The measure replaces the threat of a 25% EU retaliatory tariff that had hung over the market for much of the past year, and runs through the end of 2029. One caveat: 2025 EU imports of these tree nuts already exceeded the 500,000 ton level, so the near term impact may show up more as duty savings on existing volume than new volume growth, though almonds carry the largest share of that trade and should benefit disproportionately. That looks even more favorable this year, since the 2026 pistachio crop is expected to come in well short of last year’s, an off year in the alternate bearing cycle compounded by difficult spring weather, leaving more room in the shared quota for almonds specifically.

Looking ahead, June’s commitment strength offers a reasonable basis for expecting July shipments to hold close to last year’s pace, keeping carryout near the 500 million pounds discussed above. Sales have also stayed strong compared to a year ago, even with pricing running 20 to 40 cents per pound higher across varieties and grades, a sign of how resilient underlying demand has been this season. Buyers overall have stayed cautious and global political uncertainty persists, but the turnaround in UAE shipments has been striking, recovering from a near standstill in spring amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions to a level now running ahead of last year, a recovery that should help build confidence on both sides of the market.

New crop sales are moving faster than last year, though still slow by longer term historical standards. One new dynamic this year is the absence of a July Objective Estimate, after the Almond Board voted late last year to stop funding that report, following real disruption when the 2025 estimate overstated the crop by roughly 300 million pounds and set off a flurry of discounted selling that pushed July sales to 173 million pounds, a figure that will be difficult to exceed this year on a like for like basis. With the May Subjective Forecast now standing as the only official production estimate, that source of midseason speculation has effectively been removed, and a softer July comparison would reflect that absence rather than underlying weakness. For California sellers, it is difficult to identify much downside ahead. August shipments present an easier comparison, expected to top last August’s 157.8 million pounds, the lowest total since 2019, and with carryout manageable and early demand strong, the industry appears to be heading into the 2026 crop year with real momentum.

Harvest has already begun in some higher stress growing areas, running 10 to 14 days ahead of schedule, with the broader harvest expected to get underway in the coming weeks. Historically, an early start has not reliably predicted a strong final crop, and with harvest extending into October, the outcome remains far from settled. Weather bears watching too: a strengthening El Niño is developing in the Pacific and expected to intensify into fall, raising the risk of early moisture reaching California before harvest wraps up, the same dynamic that slowed drying and hulling last year. Until the crop is safely in the barn, sellers are likely to stay cautious.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com