Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update June 2026

The May Position Report is out, and the headline number is notable. May sales of 138 million pounds were the largest ever recorded for the month, reflecting consistent, broad-based demand that has persisted through a season defined largely by short-coverage buying.

Total May shipments reached 217.4 million pounds, up 2.6% versus May 2025, exceeding most industry expectations. Export shipments of 169.1 million pounds were up 5.2%, and year-to-date total shipments now stand at 2.213 billion pounds, down 2.19% versus last year. The season deficit has narrowed from 9.5% through December to under 3% through May. Year-to-date exports of 1.721 billion pounds are up 1.66%, while year-to-date domestic shipments of 492.3 million pounds remain down 13.61%. For the first time this season, new crop sales are reported, with 92 million pounds of 2026 crop committed — 70.8 million pounds on export and 21.2 million pounds domestically. At 2.8% of total estimated supply, it is a modest opening, though activity is expected to accelerate materially as India, China, and the Middle East enter active pipeline-filling season.

The commitment-to-shipment ratio continues to reflect a market where buyers are covering near-term needs rather than building forward positions. With end-of-April commitments of 438.3 million pounds running 8.94% ahead of last year, the pipeline entering the final months of the season is well supported. Based on actual crop receipts, the calculated carryout is tracking closer to 530 to 550 million pounds, with uncommitted inventory of 469.5 million pounds now down 5.18% versus the prior year, a reversal from the +4.19% reading through April.

Western Europe shipped 53.4 million pounds in May versus 48.9 million pounds a year ago, up 9%, a rebound from April’s softness. Year-to-date volume of 533.4 million pounds is up 5%. Spain leads at 164.3 million pounds year-to-date, up 15%, with Italy up 8% at 89.9 million pounds and Germany up 7% at 85.5 million pounds. The Netherlands remains the outlier at 85.9 million pounds year-to-date, down 25%. Central and Eastern Europe year-to-date volume of 44.1 million pounds is up 25%. Combined, total Europe year-to-date shipments of 577.4 million pounds have surpassed total domestic shipments of 492.3 million pounds, making Europe the largest single market for California almonds this season. European buyers carrying ample inventories and entering the summer holiday period are expected to remain selective.

The Middle East shipped 31.3 million pounds in May versus 30.8 million pounds in May 2025, up 2%, with year-to-date volume of 306.8 million pounds up 12% versus 274.8 million pounds in the prior year. May shipments represent a positive recovery from April’s suppressed levels, with cargo continuing to find its way through alternative routes. Turkey shipped 16.1 million pounds in May versus 7.2 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 136.2 million pounds up 42%. Pakistan, up 254% year-to-date at 23.4 million pounds, has absorbed significant rerouted volume. The UAE shipped 4.2 million pounds in May versus 16.0 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 101.6 million pounds down 27%, though May represents a significant improvement from April’s 374,000 pounds. The pace of normalization in Middle East trade flows will be an important variable as the region will require September and October shipments ahead of Ramadan. North Africa continues to perform well, with Morocco shipping 8.9 million pounds in May versus 2.8 million pounds a year ago and year-to-date volume of 80.8 million pounds up 47%.

India shipped 26.2 million pounds in May versus 35.4 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 310.1 million pounds down approximately 9%. The softer month reflects dwindling current crop inshell availability more than a lack of demand. Local inventories are thin and market participants indicate India is short on coverage from June forward. A weakening Rupee has added landed cost pressure, though inventory levels may limit how long buyers can delay. With Diwali falling later in 2026, new crop inshell contracts need to be secured in the coming weeks.

Direct China/Hong Kong shipments were 2.6 million pounds in May versus 2.5 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 30.7 million pounds. Vietnam, a significant redistribution channel into China, shipped 4.5 million pounds in May and carries year-to-date volume of 68.6 million pounds, up 36%. Combined, these channels point to stronger underlying Chinese demand than direct figures suggest. With Australia’s crop largely sidelined from the Chinese market on quality grounds, China is expected to source a greater share of its inshell needs from California this season. The 2026 California pistachio crop, projected at approximately 50% below the prior year, adds a further tailwind, as reduced pistachio supply leaves processing and roasting capacity in key markets like Vietnam available for almonds to fill. Any progress on a US-China trade deal could materially accelerate purchasing activity, while a breakdown in trade talks would represent a meaningful headwind.

The market enters its final two months of the current season and the opening of new crop business with several notable variables in play. India, China, and the Middle East all face pipeline replenishment needs, and new crop commitments of 2.8% of total estimated supply leave substantial business to be done. Current crop inventories on Nonpareil kernels and inshell are tighter than in recent seasons. Early hull split reports indicating harvest may begin in mid-July in some regions suggest orchard stress in certain areas and an earlier than normal harvest start that could accelerate new crop availability. Continued hand-to-mouth buying patterns, currency pressures, and unresolved geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remain factors that could moderate the pace of new crop coverage. However, any resolution to these issues could prove a meaningful tailwind for almond demand. Looking further ahead, the combination of a late Diwali driving India to secure new crop inshell contracts in the coming weeks, simultaneous Chinese demand returning to California after years of limited engagement, and a pistachio crop projected 50% below prior year all point toward an active and potentially accelerating new crop selling season. Sellers enter this period with lean inventories and a market that has demonstrated consistent underlying demand throughout the season. With demand building across key markets and supply tightening as the season closes, the start of the 2026 crop season carries more underlying confidence than has been seen at this point in recent years.

Highlights

• May sales of 138 million pounds were the largest ever recorded for the month; May total shipments of 217.4 million pounds up 2.6%, the first positive year-over-year monthly comparison of the season; export shipments up 5.2%
• Year-to-date total shipments of 2.213 billion pounds, down 2.19%, deficit narrowed from 9.5% through December; exports up 1.66%; domestic down 13.61% at 492.3 million pounds; Europe at 577.4 million pounds YTD has surpassed domestic to become the largest single market for California almonds this season
• Calculated carryout tracking 530 to 550 million pounds based on actual receipts; uncommitted inventory down 5.18% versus prior year, a reversal from +4.19% through April; new crop sales of 92 million pounds represent 2.8% of total estimated supply
• Turkey up 42% YTD, Morocco up 47%, Vietnam up 36%; UAE recovering from April’s 374,000 pounds to 4.2 million pounds in May; Middle East YTD up 12%
• India short on inshell coverage from June forward; China sourcing inshell from California with Australian supply absent on quality; pistachio crop projected 50% below prior year supports almond demand in Southeast Asian processing markets; US-China trade developments and Middle East normalization are key upside catalysts to monitor

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com