Treehouse California Almonds – Market Update May 2026

This week the last of three independent crop estimates were published. Terra Nova Trading estimated the 2026 crop at approximately 2.66 billion pounds, the Famoso/AgWise/Wonderful group published a midpoint of 2.643 billion pounds with a range of 2.57 to 2.71 billion, and the USDA NASS released the official Subjective Estimate at 2.70 billion pounds. Three estimates, three methodologies, all landing within roughly 60 million pounds of each other. With the Subjective now published and no Objective Estimate on the 2026 calendar, this is the last official crop data the industry will receive before harvest. Combined with a projected carryout of approximately 540 million pounds, total 2026 supply is estimated at roughly 3.18 to 3.24 billion pounds, broadly in line with the current season.

Historically, crop estimates at this stage of the season are best understood as informed assessments based on conditions as of the survey date, not a final answer. None of the estimates, governmental or industry, carry a perfect track record, and conditions will inevitably change between now and harvest. For example, the USDA Subjective has overestimated the final crop by an average of approximately 7% over the past five seasons, and significant variables remain in front of this crop. Weather risk is particularly relevant this season, a strong El Niño pattern is forecast with increasing likelihood, carrying the potential for excessive summer heat and monsoonal humidity that could affect kernel fill and sizing. Water availability, input decisions, and harvest conditions will all play a role in determining whether the crop reaches its projected potential. Australia’s 2026 crop serves as a timely reminder of how quickly a season can deteriorate, a crop that looked manageable earlier in the year was significantly impacted by rain at harvest, affecting quality and total recoverable volume. With so many variables still in front of the California crop, sellers are likely to remain cautious about overbooking new crop commitments until the harvest picture becomes clearer. The May estimates are a starting point, not a final answer, but at least it is a starting point that both buyers and sellers can largely agree on, a situation that has been uncommon in years past.

The April Position Report shows total April shipments of 219.9 million pounds, down 8.8% from 241.1 million pounds a year ago. Year-to-date shipments stand at 1.996 billion pounds, down 2.69% versus last year, compared to a 9.5% deficit through December. April export shipments of 167.3 million pounds were down 10.9%, with year-to-date exports of 1.552 billion pounds running 1.28% ahead of last year. April domestic shipments of 52.6 million pounds were essentially flat versus 53.3 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date domestic shipments of 444.1 million pounds down 14.41%. The forecasted carryout is tracking toward approximately 540 million pounds, with end-of-April committed shipments of 516 million pounds remaining on the books.

April sales slowed as both buyers and sellers limited exposure ahead of the Position Report and Subjective Crop Estimate. With only 516 million pounds of committed shipments on the books entering May, matching last year’s May shipment pace will be difficult. Looking ahead, several factors may support improved sales velocity heading into June and beyond. The prospect of improved US-China trade relations, tight global supply of high quality Nonpareil and Carmel type kernels, forecasted increases in pistachio pricing, and the hope that the Iran conflict is resolved in months rather than years could collectively increase the industry’s tolerance for a growing carryout. That said, a low carryout remains the more straightforward path to a strong starting position, and the industry’s ability to move supply at pace through the final months of the season will be closely watched.

Western Europe shipped 51.6 million pounds in April versus 63.6 million pounds a year ago, with buyers across the region reporting ample inventories. February and March exports were up 23.5% and 21.0% respectively, pulling forward volume that would otherwise have shipped later. Year-to-date volume of 480.0 million pounds is up 3% versus the prior year. The Netherlands is down 27% year-to-date at 78.2 million pounds and their local economy continues to drag. Central and Eastern Europe year-to-date volume of 38.7 million pounds is up 19%. As Standard 5% prices eclipse $3.00, it remains to be seen whether European buyers will gain confidence to take further forward positions or continue the hand-to-mouth buying pattern that has defined the past two seasons.

Middle East April shipments were significantly impacted by port congestion and shipping disruptions in the region. Cargo was rerouted to Turkey, Pakistan, and nearby ports during the month. Turkey shipped 14.6 million pounds in April versus 7.3 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 120.1 million pounds up 35%. Pakistan, up 202% year-to-date, has emerged as a significant rerouting destination as trade flows adapt to the regional disruption. The UAE shipped 0.4 million pounds in April versus 14.8 million pounds in April 2025, with year-to-date volume of 97.3 million pounds down 20%. Regional conditions are reportedly improving although long term impacts are still to be determined. Morocco shipped 10.1 million pounds in April versus 5.6 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 71.9 million pounds up 38%.

India shipped 31.6 million pounds in April versus 45.9 million pounds a year ago, and year-to-date volume of 283.9 million pounds is down approximately 8% versus the prior year. Low local inventories and modest volumes on the water are consistent with trader and buyer reports that India is uncovered from June forward. A weakening Rupee has compounded the impact of rising inshell prices, adding to landed cost pressure for Indian importers. However, local inventories are not sufficient to support a prolonged pause in importation. With Diwali falling later in 2026, Indian buyers will need to secure new crop inshell contracts in the coming weeks/months to meet holiday demand, making India an active participant in new crop conversations sooner than in recent years. With Australia’s crop significantly damaged by rain, China will be heavily reliant on California inshell to meet its own demand, a resurgence of Chinese inshell purchasing not seen in the past six years. The combination of simultaneous India and China inshell demand drawing from the same California supply creates a notably different dynamic than the market has experienced in recent seasons.

Direct China/Hong Kong shipments were 3.7 million pounds in April versus 1.8 million pounds a year ago. Year-to-date volume stands at 28.0 million pounds. Vietnam, a significant redistribution channel into China, shipped 4.9 million pounds in April versus 7.4 million pounds a year ago, with year-to-date volume of 64.1 million pounds up 46% versus the prior year. Combined, these channels point to considerably stronger Chinese demand than direct figures suggest, driven by Australia’s rain-damaged crop effectively limiting that origin from the Chinese market on quality grounds.

The degree to which hand-to-mouth buying patterns continue into the 2026 crop is an open question. With the industry coalescing around a 2.70 billion pound starting estimate, buyers have a clearer supply picture than they have had at any point this season, which would ordinarily support more forward purchasing. However, continued inflationary pressure in key importing markets may dampen that confidence and sustain the short-coverage behavior that has characterized the past two seasons. Rising fuel costs and currency fluctuations add further complexity for buyers managing landed cost risk. A trade deal with China could materially change the demand picture, as improved trade terms would likely accelerate Chinese purchasing of California almonds at a time when Australian supply is already constrained on quality, however, one tweet could change this optimism entirely. Conversely, potential developments in the Iranian conflict could reduce regional shipping uncertainty and support more normalized trade flows in the Middle East. Current crop supplies on certain varieties and sizes are reported as tight. New crop business has not yet commenced. With the crop estimate cycle now complete, market attention shifts to shipment pace and whether total supply moves at a rate consistent with the current season.

Market Outlook, Upside and Downside

The near-term market presents a credible case on both sides.

On the upside, remaining Nonpareil inventories, both kernel and inshell, appear limited as the current season closes. Demand for Nonpareil is active across multiple channels simultaneously: China is seeking inshell coverage from California given Australian quality issues, India is reported short on coverage from June forward, and the 2026 Nonpareil crop outlook carries meaningful uncertainty given the difficult bloom conditions earlier this season. Early new crop production will prioritize inshell, further delaying the availability of Nonpareil kernels into the shelled market. Any buyer needing Nonpareil coverage in the near term has limited options and limited time. Additionally, the 2026 pistachio crop is not expected to exceed 850 million pounds, leaving significant open roasting and processing capacity in Vietnam and other markets that almonds and other substitutes will look to fill, a further tailwind for almond demand in redistribution channels.

On the downside, the broader supply picture remains well-stocked on non-Nonpareil varieties, and European buyers carrying ample inventories are not expected to re-enter the market aggressively in the near term. Hand-to-mouth buying behavior, driven by currency risk and macroeconomic uncertainty, could persist into new crop and limit forward sales velocity. With the crop estimate cycle now behind us, shipment and sales pace will be critical as always, and for now the industry will pencil in 3.18 to 3.24 billion pounds as total supply and make market adjustments from there as the season develops.

© Treehouse California Almonds, LLC. www.treehousealmonds.com